2021 Visions
Words by Lachlan Ewing | He/Him
Cast your mind back to October 2019. The All Blacks had opened their Rugby World Cup defence in impervious form, and a three-peat looked imminent. Simon Bridges was the leader of the National Party. Breakout star Lizzo had just reached number 1 on the charts for the first time with “Truth Hurts”.
Times were simpler. If someone predicted that in the next twelve months Whakaari would erupt, fires in Australia would turn our skies yellow, an unheard of pandemic would bring the world to its knees, VUW would finally implement universal lecture recording, and the Chinese Communist Party would achieve world domination by way of an app for bite size dance videos, they would have been laughed out of the pub.'
But alas, here we are. 2020 has been a rollercoaster that no-one could have predicted. This time around, however, I’ve enlisted the help of a senior economist and a respected warlock, and think I have a bloody good shot at giving you guys a preview of what 2021 holds for
VUW students.
Brad Olsen is a senior economist at Infometrics. You may recognise his name, as he is often featured as an economic commentator on television and radio, especially TV1’s Breakfast show. Or, you may have known him before he hit the big time, as he only graduated our very own Te Herenga Waka last year, with a BA/Bcom. The BA must have rounded his character well, as he showed generosity uncharacteristic of a commerce student when offering a free preview on how economic forces will affect our lives next year.
Mykael Turnibulldust is a well respected warlock, by himself at least. You may recognise his name, as it is very similar to VUWSA President-elect Michael Turnbull, who has also featured on TV1 news shows. He lacks Brad’s formal qualifications, but with half of a law degree and four years experience reading tarot cards, I thought he could compliment any economic outlook well with his own arcane visions.
Brad simply emailed me his preview. Mykael, however, needed to channel forces that weren’t compatible with Gmail’s latest updates. He sat me down at a table sticky with residue he insisted was purely spiritual. The YouTube video “Breezy gypsie/ lofi hip hop/chill music/indian classical/lofi mix/indian lofi” played from a phone sat in an empty jug for amplification. He rolled a dart spliced with dried Italian herbs and sriracha, inhaled greedily, coughed a little, then blew a potent puff in my face. When my eyes cleared, Twelve tarot cards were laid on the table, one for each month of the year.
Firstly, what can we expect this summer? Well, according to Brad, “New Zealand’s borders will still be closed in 2021, as COVID-19 ravages the world and the threat of travel spreading the virus keeps flying off the table. Students considering a trip away across the world after a year cooped up in New Zealand might be best to push their planning out further, or pull together some mates for a New Zealand roadie.” For his reading of January, Mykael drew The Chariot card, which symbolises strong will and triumph. Rather than an NZ roadie, trimester three could be bountiful to students who knuckle down with those extra papers over summer.
For February, Mykael pulled the Seven of Pentacles. The Pentacles suit represents material things rather than the spiritual. As the seven symbolises a period of contemplation, our warlock envisioned that many students would be contemplating how much money they could get from StudyLink. Well, they will have to hope that it is enough, as Brad believes there will be not as much opportunity for working in retail and hospitality, which are key opportunities for students looking to help pay the bills. Perhaps a party vote Green is required to guarantee $325 a week of free money?
Interestingly, both our economist and warlock envisioned a large crop of freshers hitching their waka here when uni kicks off in March next year. Brad’s reasoning was that, “rising unemployment generally means more people looking to upskill or retrain.” Mykael got to the same conclusion by drawing the Ten of Pentacles, which signifies abundance.
For April, Mykael drew the Son of Pentacles, and I was starting to question how well he shuffled the cards. Apparently, April will be a time to really knuckle down into those first big assignments with loyal and quiet dedication. If, at this point, you are a graduate still looking for a job, you won’t be alone. Brad predicts the job market will be tough, and persistence is key. With the Son of Pentacles, this persistence may be rewarded. However, Mykael warned against stubbornness in this time, which aligns well with Brad’s advice to take all the advice and support you can get.
We had another pentacle for May, the Five, and I was getting skeptical. Had I offered this man my first-born child in exchange for a phony tarot reading? The card symbolises sadness, worry, and anxiety, which Mykael had foreseen surprisingly little of so far. I guess here we can expect the Uni’s financial loss from a lack of international students that Brad has predicted to really bite. Mykael expects anxiety in this time to be counterproductive. Will the uni, anxious to maintain Grant Guilford’s $580k salary, swing the axe on your favourite art history lecturer? Quite possibly. Will this backfire? Absolutely.
Finally, we drew something other than a pentacle in June. The Four of Swords. Swords represent the mind, and the four connotes stillness and power. This bodes very well for trimester one exams.
Brad expects the economy to remain in a rut for a while, but to “pick up as we think about, and implement, new ways to work.” Like any good professional advice, this is vague, which keeps the advisor unaccountable. Mykael is the opposite of professional, and is prepared to stake his name on the Three of Wands—his “personal favourite”. The card told him that July will see collaboration towards a future that is infinite and ours. Things look like they might finally turn a corner in the second half of the year, so get excited. Expect a Covid-19 vaccine.
For many students, August will be defined by the Father of Cups, the card of a charismatic and dignified, yet emotionally unstable man who represents his community. Is this our VUWSA President, Michael Turnbull? Mykael seemed to think so, but don’t underestimate the chances of a Winston Peters power grab. Brad didn’t have anything to say directly about political instability, but with “uncertainty and tough economic conditions set to persist,” I could read between the lines.
If you like alliteration, get excited for the September Seven of Swords, symbolising secrecy and self interest. The coming of Spring heralds the reemergence of flatmates from their bedrooms and the possibility of flat dynamics going to shit. Whispers of forming breakaway groups abound. Who’s in and who's out? However, you should take time to consider whether the grass is always greener on the other side. Unfortunately, according to Brad, “One area that is unlikely to change in Wellington is how hard it is to find a flat, and how much it’ll cost you. House prices continue to rocket ahead, and although the growth in rents has slowed, it’s still going up.” Maybe sticking it out with your current flatties could be worthwhile.
Brad predicts Wellington’s economy to be more resilient than elsewhere in New Zealand. This could be very relevant to Mykael’s boldest prediction, that VUW will buy Otago University in October. The Ace of Wands that brought about this intuition also suggests October will be a very fertile time, with pregnancy likely. Study hard for the end of year exams and avoid unprotected sex.
Expect the end of the university year to be a prosperous beginning, with the Ace of Pentacles governing November. Getting a great summer job? Collecting a refund for your Northern Bass ticket after the festival is cancelled due to the seventh wave of covid? Enjoying Studylink’s living costs for a few weeks after you finish your exams and are already at home? Who knows.
Mykael foresees the year ending on a bad note. A Four of Cups for December signifies greed and discontent, so we all will probably drink a bit too much in the silly season, and be unhappy when exam marks come out. Don’t let this affect your Christmas dinner chat, and be sure to think carefully before you have a row with Uncle Nigel. Find some common ground.
Both our economist and warlock agree that next year will be a rollercoaster ride for students. Brad thinks “it's undeniable that 2021 will present more of the same as in 2020, even when people want to see the pandemic turn a corner so we can get back on track. Realistically, it’ll take longer to turn this ship around, and so New Zealand may well remain a lifeboat from COVID-19 at the bottom of the South Pacific.” Mykael’s general theme was defined by the Ten of Cups, which radiates energy. Apparently, there will be a lot going on next year. Duh.
Looking into the future has always been a challenging exercise, due to obvious logistical difficulties with the direction of time’s flow. Plenty of seers have embarrassed themselves when their arcane visions never come to pass. Economists pride themselves on having a little extra analytical rigour, but it's worth remembering very few foresaw the 2008 Global Financial crisis coming. If Brad missed this, I could probably forgive him, as he was twelve at the time.
Regardless, by bringing together these two perspectives from different worlds, I hope I have given you a well-rounded preview to base your plans for 2021 off. So long as we are realistic about our job prospects, work hard, and practice safe sex (especially in October), we can get through 2021. Kia kaha Vic students.